Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher - A Researcher in International Relations and International Business with a Focus on Security and Political Risks & Economic and Strategic Risks Related to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), International Trade and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As)

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Military Alliances Led by Russia and China

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/rcm

Latest Update: 29 October 2024

Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Monitoring Military, Political, Economic and Trade Alliances that Have an Impact on Global Order and Geopolitics

Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-alliances

For the Differences Between Military Defence Treaty versus Military Support Treaty versus Military Cooperation, Please see Section B2. in 2024 Global Survival Rank by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/global-survival-rank-zrb/2024

Military Alliances Led by Russia and China

Counter-NATO refers to the Composition of Alliances led by Russia-China that likely will be operated in the case of war against NATO, still, keep in mind, that it is likely that some countries included in the Counter-NATO may not join the war, yet these countries may be involved indirectly in the war by providing Military and Economic assistance to Counter-NATO. Hence, Counter-NATO led by Russia-China includes the following Alliances: China-Russia-North Korea Triple Bilateral Defence Treaties, CSTO, CIS, SCO, and BRICS.

Chart of Military Alliances Led by Russia and China

  • Green Lines: Military Treaties that Include a Commitment to Defend in the Case of Attack

  • Blue Lines: Military Cooperation and Joint Military Drills

Map of Counter-NATO: Military Alliances Led by Russia and China

Section E27. Counter-NATO led by Russia-China https://www.rozen-bakher.com/gsr/2024/e/27

  • CSTO. CSTO is a Military Alliance led by Russia that has six former Soviet countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Importantly, CSTO has 8 Observer States: Afghanistan, China, Iran, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Syria, and Uzbekistan, which regularly participate in Joint Training/Drills and Military Summits. For Full Details and the latest Membership Status, Please see CSTO - Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/csto

  • China-Russia Military Defence Treaty, 2001. The treaty is called the ‘Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation’, yet it includes a ‘Hard-Medium Definition’ of a Military Defence Treaty, namely ”When a situation arises in which one of the contracting parties deems that peace is being threatened and undermined or its security interests are involved or when it is confronted with the threat of aggression, the contracting parties shall immediately hold contacts and consultations in order to eliminate such threats”. That means that in the case of an attack against Russia or China, the two countries will conduct immediately a consultation to eliminate the threat, namely the consultation aims to check if the country can eliminate the threat alone or if the country needs help to eliminate the threat via joint defence. Hence, clearly, Russia and China have a Military Defence Treaty that includes a commitment to defend each other in the case of attack, yet the treaty takes into account that both countries, Russia and China are Big and Strong Countries that can eliminate alone many external threats, and because of that comes the consultation to understand if under a certain attack is needed help to eliminate the threat or not. Considering the above, if will occur a significant attack against Russia and China, then both countries will act together to eliminate the threat via joint defence, yet in the case of an attack against China, then China, Russia and North Korea will fight together against the attack, while in the case of an attack against Russia, then China, Russia and CSTO will fight together against the attack, still, in both cases, Russia and China likely will also get military assistance or even more than that from countries that belong to SCO, BRICS and SIC.

  • China-North Korea Military Defence Treaty, 1961. The treaty is called ‘Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation, and Mutual Assistance’, yet it includes a ‘Hard Definition’ of a Military Defence Treaty, namely that the two nations undertake all necessary measures to oppose any country or coalition of countries that might attack either nation.

  • Russia-North Korea Military Defence Treaty, 2024. The Soviet Union (USSR) and North Korea had a Military Defence Treaty that was signed in 1961 and it was valid until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 (see https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume 420/volume-420-I-6045-English.pdf). After the dissolution of USSR, Russia and North Korea had a Treaty of Friendship, but without a Military Defence Treaty. On June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a Military Defence Treaty with  ‘Two Directions’ based on ‘Hard Definition’, so since then, China-Russia-North Korea have Triple Bilateral Defence Treaties.  

  • China-Solomon Islands Security Pact, 2022. The China-Solomon Islands Security Pact can be considered as One Direction of a Military Defence Treaty under a ‘Soft Definition’. Based on various open sources, the Security deal between China and the Solomon Islands includes a commitment of China to send military forces in the case of political instability in the Solomon Islands (political instability can occur due to coups, mass protests, riots and such), while in return, the Solomon Islands allows China Naval to use the Solomon Islands as a ‘Military Station’ including conducting aerial surveillance of the pacific islands, and importantly, China has the right to defend its assets and military personnel in Solomon Islands under ‘external threat’, resulting in a Military Defence Treaty de-facto between China and the Solomon Islands, still, it is One Direction of Military Defence Treaty because only China has the commitment to defend the Solomon Islands from Internal and External threats, while the Solomon Islands has no obligation to do the same for China. Notably, the Solomon Islands are located in a strategic location in the Pacific near Australia (see maps below), which gives China a military advantage in that location. Keep in mind, that significant Western countries have colonies in various important locations worldwide (see map below), which usually include military bases in those colonies, so a military pact in the style of China-Solomon Islands gives China a similar alternative to Western military bases in distant colonies.

  • CIS. CIS has de-facto Military Defence Treaty. The CIS was formed by former Soviet Union countries following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 based on the Alma-Ata Protocol which includes also Economic, Trade, Political, and Military aspects. At the Military Level, the ‘CIS Council of Defence Ministers’ formed a Military Cooperation among CIS members including the establishment of a Headquarter (MCCH) located in Moscow, while in 1995, CIS established a joint ‘CIS Air Defence System’ that includes Units of Air Defence of the CIS Members under the control of the ‘Air Defence Coordination Committee’ of the ‘CIS Council of Defence Ministers’, with the aim of protecting the Air Boundaries of the CIS members including giving Early Warning for Air/Missile Strikes alongside a Coordination Response to the Air/Missile Strikes, which can be considered as de-facto a Military Defence Treaty of CIS because, in the 21 century, Air/Missile Strikes are always part of an attack and war. Besides, CIS has a unique membership status, namely Associate Member which is reserved for any country that did not ratify the CIS Charter, yet the Council of Heads of States of CIS approved the participation of the country in CIS activities (e.g. Turkmenistan), which makes these countries as de-facto Members of CIS without the formality of the ratifying. For Full Details and the latest Membership Status, Please see CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States - Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/cis

Trade, Economic and Political Alliances with Military Cooperation led by China and Russia

  • BRICS. BRICS is a Global Alliance that includes Trade, Economic and Political aspects and even Military Cooperation via regular Joint Drills. BRICS has already declared its plan that BRICS will have 30 members in 2025, namely adding 20 new members in 2025, likely most of them from the countries that have already given Applications to be a Member of BRICS, as well as from the pool of countries that currently have a status of Dialogue Partners of BRICS. Note, at the 15th Summit, BRICS approved five applications to join BRICS including from Saudi Arabia. Following that, Saudi Arabia declared that the country joined BRICS, but after that, Saudi Arabia declared that formally is yet to confirm its membership in BRICS. Hence, in the 2024 Global Survival Rank, Saudi Arabia is mentioned as a member of BRICS based on the assumption that eventually, Saudi Arabia Formally will confirm its membership in BRICS, still, for the latest Membership Status and full information about the alliance, Please see BRICS - Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/brics-plus

  • SCO. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Regional Alliance led by China that combines issues of Trade, Economics, Politics, and even Security and Military cooperation via Security Summits with the Security Councils of the SCO members, as well as regular Joint Military Drills by the SCO Members and Observer States and even with other Alliances as CIS. SCO aims to include countries from the regions of East-South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, and East Europe to create territorial continuity among the SCO members. For Full Details and the latest Membership Status, Please see SCO - Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - Monitoring Alliances by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/alliances/sco

From 2024 Global Survival Rank by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

2024 Global Survival Rank by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/global-survival-rank-zrb/2024

From Newspapers - China's Bilateral Military Defence Treaties

General

Russia-North Korea

China-Solomon Islands

China-North Korea

China-Russia

From Scientific Literature - Research Papers and Research Books

From Documentaries and Inside TV News - China's Bilateral Military Defence Treaties

China-Solomon Islands

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China-North Korea

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China-Russia

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