Published 17 March 2022

Global Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Global Risks aims to Stimulate Thinking ‘Out of the Box’ about Ongoing Global Problems that have no clear Solutions.

Nuclear War: Human Extinction

Is World Nuclear War could lead to the Extinction of Humanity?

Yes. If will occur a long-term ‘Nuclear Winter’ in which all the food resources on Earth will consume before the ending of the ‘Nuclear Winter’, as happened to Dinosaurs when all of them extinct.

Today, we have around 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide. When we think about the risk of human extinction, then we usually think about the death toll that each nuclear bomb could lead immediately when it hits the zero-ground, as well as how many severe injuries will be in the short-term (a few weeks later) and even in the mid-term (a few months later) and in the long-run (a few years later) due to the illness. Given that, even if during a World Nuclear War all the 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide will be used, then we will have survivors in many places in the world. We know it because when nuclear bombs were used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we had survivors even in the zero-ground, while some of them survived the severe injuries in the short-term, and even some of them have succeeded to live until old age. Thus, apparently, there is no risk for the extinction of humanity due to a World Nuclear War, but it’s not correct because the extinction of humanity could occur due to a World Nuclear War if it will lead to a long-term ‘Nuclear Winter’ that will last for many years in which all the food resources on Earth will consume before the ending of the ‘Nuclear Winter’, as happened to the Dinosaurs when all of them extinct.

How Dinosaurs Extinct?

Long-term Nuclear Winter/Volcanic Winter extinct all the Dinosaurs that survived the collision of the Asteroid that hit Earth, an effect that is equivalent to numerous nuclear bombs.

The mass extinction K–T happened 66 million years ago due to an Asteroid that hits Earth, which led to a sudden extinction of 80% of the plant and species on Earth including the extinction of all Dinosaurs, while only very small species that consume limited food, succeded to survive. The K–T mass extinction was involved infrared radiation, volcanic activity, falling sea levels, mega earthquakes, tsunamis, ash clouds, toxic gas, electromagnetic radiation, and widespread fires, which led to Nuclear winter/Volcanic Winter that last many years, resulting in a lack of food on Earth, so those who survived the collision of the Astroiad, starved after that to death. Nevertheless, keep in mind, that nuclear war is also involved Ionizing radiation and not only infrared radiation like in the case of collision of an asteroid.

Dinosaurs documentary: Last Day of The Dinosaurs - Dinosaurs documentary national geographic - YouTube

What is a Nuclear Winter/Volcanic Winter?

Nuclear Winter is caused by nuclear war, while Volcanic Winter is caused by volcanic activity, yet both of them have the same effect on Earth namely, the direct sunlights are blocked from reaching the Earth's surface, which prevents the growth of plants and agriculture due to the cooling, resulting in famine and even starvation to death if all the food resources are consumed.

In a Nuclear Winter/Volcanic Winter, the direct sunlights are blocked from reaching Earth, resulting in a drastic cooling of the surface of Earth, which leads to famine and even to starvation due to widespread crop failure, inability to produce agriculture, and lack of growth of plants like vegetables and fruits. Keep in mind, that Nuclear Winter is caused by nuclear war, while Volcanic Winter is caused by volcanic activity, yet Nuclear war can trigger volcanic activities that could lead to Volcanic Winter, so in a nuclear war, we get a combination of Nuclear Winter and Volcanic Winter. Importantly, in Nuclear Winter, the global average surface cooling is supposed to droop to −7 °C and even up to -30 °C for many years instead of +15 °C that we have today, which does not allow existing of life on Earth in its current form.

Nuclear Winter | Retro Report | The New York Times - YouTube

The Power of Volcanoes Pt. 1: Years without Summer | Full Documentary - YouTube

How many nuclear bombs could lead to long-term Nuclear Winter that will extinct humanity?

It depends on the size of the Nuclear bombs, yet likely that 7-12 nuclear bombs will lead to nuclear winter that will extinct humanity, while no doubt in the case of 15-20 nuclear bombs, still, even small regional nuclear war may lead to Nuclear winter.

Many researchers run models over the years to predict how many nuclear bombs will lead to nuclear winter, yet some researchers argued that even small regional nuclear war could lead to Nuclear winter. In spite of the differences between the results of various studies, it’s clear that global nuclear war involving dozens of nuclear bombs will lead to long-term nuclear winter that will definitely extinct humanity, as happened to dinosaurs.