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Published Date: 03 February 2022

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Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks

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Iran Sanctions and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), 3 February 2022

MP says Iran can use SCO capacity to neutralize sanctions - Tehran Times

Iran - Wikipedia; Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - Wikipedia;

USA and China are like two rival ‘business firms-superpowers’ that compete on ‘customers-allies’. Each of them has loyal ‘customers-allies’ (e.g. UK for USA, while North Korea for China), yet there are many potential ‘customers-allies’ that could move from one ‘firm-superpower’ to another, so when USA imposes sanctions on one ‘customer-ally’, then it creates an opportunity for China to takeover on the disappointed/frustrated customer-ally to increase the ‘market-superpower’ share of ‘customers-allies’ of China. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is served as a tool for China to neutralize sanctions imposed by USA on potential ‘customer-ally’ in order to create for China a new loyal ‘customer-ally’. Given that, when the ‘market-superpower’ share of USA is reduced due to sanctions, then the ‘market-superpower’ share of China is increased. This movement of ‘customers-allies’ between the ‘business firms-superpowers’ occur regardless of sanctions when a ‘customer-ally’ abandoned or disappointed from the ‘service’ of its ‘business firm-superpower’.

Hence, several important questions arise in the risk of Iran Sanctions and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO):

• Is Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) could be counter-sanctions for USA’s sanctions and its allies on Iran?

• Is the joining of Iran as a full member of SCO undermining the motivation of Iran to resume the nuclear deal?

• Is Iran willing to go back to the old conditions of the nuclear deal or Iran will try to get better conditions due to the neutralize sanctions via SCO?

• Is China interested in continuing USA sanctions on Iran in terms of the creation of new allies when the USA is continued to impose sanctions or imposes new sanctions on a potential ally of China?

• Is China not interested in resuming the Iran nuclear deal because of ‘losing control’ on a new ally?

• Is the Iran nuclear deal doomed because of SCO?

• Is Iran already have nuclear capabilities via ‘made or buy’ or even getting ‘gifts’ from non-USA rivals/superpowers?

• Is global regulation could stop the sale of nuclear capabilities or the ‘gifts’ of nuclear capabilities?