Israel - Apartheid State?: Two-State Solution vs. One-State Solution
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/06/02/2022
Published Date: 06 February 2022
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Israel - Apartheid State?: Two-State Solution vs. One-State Solution, 6 February 2022
Background Information
Israel - Wikipedia; State of Palestine - Wikipedia; International recognition of the State of Palestine - Wikipedia;
One-state solution - Wikipedia; Two-state solution - Wikipedia; Apartheid - Wikipedia; Ethnic cleansing - Wikipedia
Israel - Dr. Rozen-Bakher Academic Blog on FDI & International Trade https://www.rozen-bakher.com/blog/2021/08/10/israel
Palestine - Dr. Rozen-Bakher Academic Blog on FDI & International Trade https://www.rozen-bakher.com/blog/2021/08/30/palestine
Two-State Solution
Population by Religion
Israel Population: 9,216,900 Milion (World Bank, 2020) Religion in Israel - Wikipedia
Jewish Israeli Population: app. 74% - app. 6,800,000
Non-Jewish Israeli Population: app. 26% - app. 2,400,000
Palestine Population: 4,803,269 Milion (West Bank and Gaza-World Bank, 2020)
Political Share by Religion
Israeli Parliament (Knesset) 120 Seats Knesset - Wikipedia
Jewish Parties - 89/120 Seats reflects a potential of 74%
Arab Parties - 31/120 Seats reflects a potential of 26% Joint List - Wikipedia; United Arab List - Wikipedia
Based on these results, 9 seats (app. 690,000 Arab votes) moved from Arab parties to Jewish parties, which may raise a concern about the ‘clean election’ because all Arab parties got in 2021-10/120 instead of 19/120 in 2022.
Is the repeated inability to establish a Jewish coalition without Arab parties over the 3 elections in 2019-2021 has led to a distortion of the clean and democratic election in Israel in 2022 in terms of manipulation with the results of the Arab population?
Under Two-State Solution, it’s very difficult to establish a Jewish coalition without Arab parties unless the Arab Israeli population will decrease by a voluntary transfer to the State of Palestine, which is opposite to a one-state solution. Nevertheless, trying to preserve the Jewish coalition without Arab parties may doom the democracy in Israel due to manipulation with the Arab results that may already occur in the election in 2022.
Cyber-election is one of the most danger risks for democracies in the 21 century because all the elections are based on collecting the results via computers and software systems, which makes the elections vulnerable for manipulation via cyber-elections.
One-State Solution
- Population by Religion
Jewish Population - app. 6,800,000 Milion - 48%
Non-Jewish Population - app. 7,200,000 Milion - 52%
Total Population - app. 14,000,000 Milion
Political Share
Israeli Parliament (Knesset) 120 Seats
Jewish Parties - 58/120 Seats reflects a potential of 48%
Arab Parties - 62/120 Seats reflects a potential of 52%
Under One-State Solution, there is no option to establish a Jewish coalition without Arab parties unless it’s not really a One-State but an Apartheid State that runs under a mechanism of different rights for the two groups, the Jewish population and the Palestinian population. Nevertheless, trying to preserve the Jewish majority may lead also to intense Ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians via demolitions and deportations along with an implementation of an Apartheid State to push-out, voluntary and non-voluntary, the Palestinian out from the ‘Israeli Jewish One-State’.
What are the risks of the ‘Israeli Apartheid State’ under ‘One-State Solution’?
Two-State Solution could lead to the ending of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, which may lead to the opportunity to create security stability and economic prosperity via International Trade and FDI in the Middle-East including the Gulf region. Currently, the international trade with Israel and the FDI in Israel by Arab states, or vice versa, the FDI of Israel in Arab States, are limited due to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. It’s in a style of a ‘Cold-Peace’ or ‘Cold Diplomatic Relations’ because Arab firms are de-facto limit their business activities with Israel. Even, for example, Saudi-Arabia, did not establish yet a diplomatic relation with Israel likely due to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict because the ‘simple Arab people’ oppose relations with Israel.
One-State Solution could escalate the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict because, over time, the share of the Palestinian population is increased while the share of the Jewish population is decreased, resulting in an inability to preserve the Jewish characteristics of the Jewish State unless it will be implemented via Apartheid State, Ethnic cleansing and manipulated elections to preserve somehow the Jewish majority. Thus, the expectation is that under One-State Solution, the Palestinians will continue with their goal to achieve an independent state, so the expectation that the resistance movement of the Palestinians against the Israeli occupation will continue including military conflicts and wars. Looking at British colonies around the world may give a good indication of the importance of achieving an independent state by ethnic groups that have territory. All British colonies resisted to the continuing of the British control until the independence was achieved. Only very small populations of colonies like Gibraltar that have no advantages in running an independent country have agreed to continue with the status of colony. However, the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza includes 5 million people with the expectation for a fast increase due to the high fertility rate, so likely that the Palestinians will continue with their goal to end the Israeli occupation and to become an independent state. Nevertheless, the conflict of the One-State Solution could expand beyond Israel to the Middle-East and Gulf Regions, and it even could trigger a regional conflict or a global conflict, or worse a WWIII, especially if a war would occur between Israel and Iran that may include the involvement of superpowers.
The main risk is what will happen if Israel will implement an ‘Apartheid State’ under ‘One-State Solution.
Still, the question is if Israel already runs de-facto an ‘Apartheid State’ under ‘One-State Solution?