Russia’s Counter-Sanctions: ‘Gazprom-Weapon’

February 7, 2022 Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/07/02/2022

Published Date: 07 February 2022

Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks

Monitoring Risks https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks-1

Russia’s Counter-Sanctions: ‘Gazprom-Weapon’, 7 February 2022

Russia shifting energy flows from West to East | MENAFN.COM

Why the EU needs Russian energy giant Gazprom | News | DW | 06.02.2022

The main observations about Ukraine-Russia Crisis are on the scope of the military deployment of the Russian army near the Ukraine border, which weapons deployed, and when the Russian army will be ready for a full invasion of Ukraine, while the other attention is on the scope of upcoming sanctions against Russia by the USA and its allies in case of invasion. Still, less attention is given to the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ of Russia against the USA allies in Europe, and importantly, how President Putin is getting ready for counter-sanctions via the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against European countries that will impose sanctions against Russia.

Hence, the attention on the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ of Russia against European countries should focus on the following issues:

Is Russia will stop the gas supply to European countries that will impose sanctions against Russia?

Is Russia in the process of shifting its gas from the West to the East (e.g. China) as part of the ‘deployment’ of ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against European countries that will impose sanctions against Russia?

Are the European countries that are going to join the sanctions against Russia, are ready with alternative gas sources in the case that Russia will use the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against them?

How using the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ by Russia will impact the economic and political stability in European countries in terms of higher gas prices, gas shortage, inflation, demonstration, and even falling governments?

Is Russia already established a ‘Gas Coalition’ with its allies as counter-sanctions to prevent alternative gas sources to European countries?

Looking in-depth at the leading countries with gas reserves reveals the high risk of ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against European countries as counter-sanctions:

‘Russian Gas Coalition’: Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria.
‘West Gas Coalition’: USA
In the middle: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
Notes: Likely that Qatar will join the ‘Russian Gas Coalition’ due to the influence of China and Iran. Turkmenistan has a neutral foreign policy, yet Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan are her main allies, so likely that if it will export gas to Europe, then it will be at a minimum-symbolic level. Nigeria is heavily dependent on China, so Nigeria will likely join the ‘Russian Gas Coalition’. Algeria has strong relations with Russia and China, so likely that if it will export gas to Europe, then it will be at a minimum-symbolic level.

The high risk for European countries if Russia will invade Ukraine is not a war in its cities but likely cold houses and higher prices of gas due to the gas shortage. The ‘Winter is Coming’ may impact significantly Europe in the years to come in case of long war sanctions between Russia and the West.