Wagner Group: Contract Fight or Rebellion?
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:
02 July 2023 at 09:38. The West leaders and West newspapers argued excessively argued that the so-called Coup attempt/Rebellion/Mutiny by the Wagner Mercenary Group is an indication of the coming Collapse of Putin/Weakening of the Putin regime. However, I argue the opposite, that it was NOT a Rebellion, but a Contract Fight/Money Fight, and importantly, how the ‘Contract-Proud Crisis’ was handled indicates that Putin and its loyal allies know how to handle a crisis in terms of ending it Fastly, Smoothly, and even in a Cleverly way.
So let’s start with why I argue that it was not a Rebellion but a Contract Fight/Money Fight. First, if from the viewpoint of Putin, Prigozhin betrayed him or had the ambition to replace him, then Prigozhin was already in ‘Heaven’ or in jail for many years to come, but on the contrary, Prigozhin in the last year sacrificed himself, day and night, in the most difficult battlefield in Ukraine for the victory of Putin and for his profit from this war as the owner of Wagner Mercenary Group. Second, the Contract Fight/Money Fight/Pride Fight between Prigozhin and Putin/leadership of the Russian army started a few months before, when Prigozhin begged to get more ammunition in order to advance on the battlefield, so Prigozhin acted as a ‘Good Worker’ or as a ‘Good CEO’ to advance its mission/success/profit/pride. The details of the contract between Russia and Wagner Mercenary Group are disclosed, but I can assume that the profit of Wagner Group depends on the advance in the battlefield even in terms of how many square meters/square kilometres were successfully occupied. Thereby, from the viewpoint of Prigozhin, getting ammunition is critical for profit/success/pride, so he had a big fight with Putin/leadership of the Russian army on that. The leadership of the Russian army did look at profit or at a specific battlefield of Prigozhin, but at the Big Picture of the war in Ukraine, so the priority for ammunition is based on the Army Russian’s ‘Big Picture of the War’. The conflict about ammunition between Prigozhin and the Russian army was revealed each day to the world via news interviews by Prigozhin that hopes to get more ammunition from the Russian army by putting pressure on them via these news interviews. Likely, that the conflict about ammunition escalated to the point of disagreement about the new contract between Wagner Group and the Russian Army. The Russian army tried to make a contract that Prigozhin will be disciplined under the command of the Russian Army, while Prigozhin looked at the money and likely that he is smarter than the leaders of the Russian Army, so Prigozhin refused to sign the new contract. Third, the conflict about the new contract escalated to the point that Prigozhin had two options to agree or to protest, so he choose to protest in a very risky move in the hope to get what he wants, namely a new contract based on his terms. Usually, a Coup Attempt/Rebellion/Mutiny is done under a plan that even takes months to form, but a protest usually erupts more spontaneity without any preliminary plan for how it will progress. We should keep in mind that even in spontaneous riots people are hurt, so obviously, in the case of a spontaneous ‘Riot’ by a Mercenary Group that used weapons, still, we can not see any preliminary plan for a Coup Attempt, but on the contrary, irrational moves by Prigozhin that indicate his broken-hurt/disappointed mode from not getting the contract that he want. First, he took control of Rostov-on-Don, and then he sent around 5,000 soldiers towards Moscow, the Russian capital. Is someone believe that 5,000 soldiers or even 25,000 soldiers, the force that Prigozhin had, can take control of Moscow? Obviously not, so based on my analysis, it was a spontaneous protest without any preliminary plan of Coup Attempt/Rebellion/Mutiny as Prigozhin argued, and because of that, Putin pardoned Prigozhin and Wagner’s soldiers, yet with the ‘punishment’ of sending Prigozhin to Belarus, still, under the warm hospitality of Lukashenko, the president of Ukraine, that surely will ensure that Prigozhin will still have a profit in Belarus.
However, the ‘Big Star’ of this crisis was Lukashenko that handled this crisis, yet Putin showed again his calm in handling crises in terms of not taking revenge on Prigozhin and Wagner Group. As I started, Lukashenko and Putin ended this crisis Fastly, Smoothly, and Cleverly. This crisis did not weak Putin, but on the contrary, it strengthens his political position in Russia in terms that he did not compromise with the demands of Prigozhin. Putin showed the world that he controls Russia, yet loyal friends are always an important asset, like the loyal friend, Lukashenko. This crisis also demonstrates the unity of Russia and Belarus.
What does the future hold for Prigozhin and Wagner after the mutiny? | Russia | The Guardian