Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:

Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: Analysing Risks in-Depth of Political Risks, Economic Risks, and Strategic Risks

Global Risks by Dr. Rozen-Bakher: Stimulating Thinking ‘Out of the Box’ on Ongoing Global Problems that have no Clear Solutions

Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Blog on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade to Identify Risks versus Opportunities

Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Twitter Lists and Twitter Hashtags to Identify Risks for FDI and International Trade

04 July 2023 at 13:12. The Head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, predicted that the State of Palestine will not be, while on the contrary, I predict that if Israel will not end the occupation of Palestine, then the State of Israel will not be. Why? Because the Islam World that is much stronger than Israel, and will not allow Israel to continue with ethnic cleansing, Apartheid, Massacre of youth Palestinians only because they are young, Preventing Health care for dying Palestinians, and intentional Pogroms by IDF and Jewish shelters to destroy homes, civilian facilities and infrastructure. The State of Israel under the Far-Right government of Netanyahu has already passed the stage of shameful and moral, so let’s put it aside and let’s talk about NUMBERS and STRATEGY, namely why and how the Islam World has the ability to make Israel to ‘Not to be’. I assume that the head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, and many others in Israel think that IDF is a powerful army that has unlimited power to survive a big war against the Islam World, but they are clearly wrong. Why? NUMBERS as we can see in the Survival Rank in the table below. Keep in mind that in case of conflict, some Islamic countries will be militarily active in the war, while others will give assistance, such as weapons and money and even as a base for military operations. Importantly, I assume that the State of Israel also believes that if ‘something bad’ will be started, namely a BIG LONG WAR between Israel and the Islam World, then USA, Germany, and EU will be able to assist them, but Israel is clearly wrong. Why? STRATEGY as we can see in the Energy table below, as well as in the table that compares between USA Coalition and the Russia-China Coalition amid the Ukraine war that weakens the geopolitics position of the USA due to the change in the global order. To make the story of the strategy short, then Israel and its allies should learn from what happened in the past, namely in the 1970s Energy Oil Crisis, but now it will be worse because we will have both an Oil Crisis and a Gas Crisis. Thus, try to imagine how Germany will be able to help Israel without Gas (see related news about Qatar) or even try to imagine how the Powerful USA will be able to help Israel without Oil (see related news about Saudi Arabia and Russia). The recent JOINT cutting of oil production by Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of them members of OPEC Plus, is a clear indication of the ‘ART of Oil Price’, namely Less Production-Higher Price, still, we should remember that in the 1970s Energy Oil Crisis, OPEC not only CUT the oil production but de-facto made Embargo/Sanctions on Oli Export to the West. If Tzachi Hanegbi forgot, then I will remind him that the 1970s Energy Oil Crisis started in October 1973 when Yom-Kippur War erupted. Importantly, in the 1970s, USA had much more Oil Reserves and Gas Reserves compared to its current reserves, so if OPEC plus that mainly includes Islamic Countries and Countries that clearly don’t like USA and Israel will decide today to impose de-facto (Formal/Informal) Embargo/Sanctions on Oil Export on USA, EU and others ‘Friends of Israel’, then in the good scenario, the war will end with the ending of Israeli Occupation of Palestine, while in the bad scenario, the Islam World will make its revenge on Israel via mass destruction before the war will over. However, today, we also have ‘Textile Factories’ in Israel, Iran, Pakistan, and other countries that already produce or have the possibility to produce ‘Dangerous Clothing’, so in the worst scenario, the war could be involved ‘Dangerous Clothing’, namely ‘Not to Be’, especially in case of Small size area. Finally, the State of Israel should remember that no one will agree to live under occupation. The Youth Palestinians are not Terrorists but young people that have the right to live their life as Free citizens in the State of Palestine, the same as the Israeli Youth live their life in the State of Israel.

1970s energy crisis - Wikipedia; 1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia

State of Palestine List - Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Twitter Lists to Identify Risks for FDI and International Trade https://twitter.com/i/lists/1274603075873968129

Global Survival Rank in WWIII: USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/29/04/2023

Islam World - Global Survival Rank

Islam World - Global Energy Rank, Oil and Gas

All Countries - Global Energy Rank, Oil and Gas, Sort By Coalition