The Significant Gap between the West and Iran to Revive the Iran Nuclear Deal
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/05/03/2022/0913
Published Date: 05 March 2022 at 09:13
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:
Iran Nuclear Deal - Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/17/02/2022
05 March at 09:13. There is a significant gap between the reporting in the West news and in the Iranian news about the reviving of the Iran nuclear deal. Over the last two months, too many times assessments were made by various actors involved in the negotiation of the deal that the deal is going to be closed in the coming week, yet without any progress, so under this situation, the better way is to follow the facts below to get a better assessment about the probability of reviving the deal:
Iran refuses to make direct negotiations with the USA.
Iran demands that the USA will be obligated that any next USA president will not withdraw again from the deal. USA has no ability to obligate to this demand because any future USA president has the ability to withdraw from any previous agreement that was made by any previous USA president.
Before about one month, the Iranian parliament was passed a ‘law’ that any nuclear deal that Iran will sign in the future must include certain conditions, which unlikely the West will agree upon them.
The new president of Iran, Raisi, opposes the deal in general, so he puts efforts in neutralising the sanctions on Iran by creating alternative incomes to Iran with non-West allies.
The religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared several times recently that the conditions of the previous deal were not good to Iran, so any new deal must include certain new conditions, such as peaceful reactors, USA obligation to not withdraw in the future and more.
In the light of the above, on the one hand, Iran would like that the sanctions will be cancelled, but on the other, Iran insists that any new deal must include new conditions. Given that, my assessment is that any new deal will include new conditions that are less good to the West compared to the previous deal. Still, I have a big doubt if any new deal will be agreed upon between Iran and the West because of the significant gap between the sides alongside the inability to give Iran a guarantee that the USA won't withdraw again from the deal.