https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/10/04/2022/0716

Published Date: 10 April 2022 at 07:16

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:

Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: Analysing Risks in-Depth of Political Risks, Economic Risks, and Strategic Risks

Global Risks by Dr. Rozen-Bakher: Stimulating Thinking ‘Out of the Box’ on Ongoing Global Problems that have no Clear Solutions

Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Blog on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade to Identify Risks versus Opportunities

Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Twitter Lists and Twitter Hashtags to Identify Risks for FDI and International Trade

10 April 2022 at 07:16. If we look at Iran's economy in the last 6 months, then it seems that Iran succeeded to bypass the West sanctions with the help of the Russia-China Coalition (In relation to Ukraine, I mentioned it as the Russian Coalition but it’s the same coalition). Paradoxically, the conservative new Iran President, Raisi, succeeded to create counter-sanctions compared to the former reformist Iran President, Rouhani. Yet the question is why? My analysis indicates that half-democracies/autocratic regimes feel more comfortable to close deals of ‘bypassing sanctions’ with Raisi over Rouhani. That explains why suddenly Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have become more closer to Iran compared to the period of Rouhani, still, it’s part of the story because likely Russia and China and other countries have stepped in to help Iran recently due to the antagonism that developed against the USA because of the overusing of power by the USA against countries that don't obey the USA, which is implemented by the USA via sanctions and other methods. This trend is even worsened since the severe sanctions against Russia, so now, we have an open war-sanctions between the USA coalition and the Russia-China coalition. Perhaps, this trend could be described as a geopolitics revolt against the hegemony of the USA, which leads to a weakening position of the USA, resulting in a dramatic change in the global order that affects not only the USA but also its loyal allies. That explains why Iran does not rush to close the nuclear deal, why Israel has a wave of military resistance by Palestinians, and why many countries in the last UN vote on Russia openly moved to the side of Russia. My speculation is that this geopolitics revolt against the USA will escalate in the coming period via counter-sanctions of energy by the Russia-China coalition against the USA coalition, so the EU has a high risk because of its dependence on Russian gas without real alternatives for replacement the Russian gas. Even Israel has a big risk of military conflicts because Arab countries may more unite regarding ending the occupation of Palestine, which may increase the likelihood of military confrontations in the Middle-East. Perhaps this revolt is also related to the double standards of the USA and its allies. History proved that empires rise and fall, so it seems that we enter a new era of a dual superpower of Russia-China that will replace the USA as a superpower, yet the USA will be always an important big country like the former British Empire or the French Empire, still, there is a difference between a superpower and an important big country. That should remind us of the big risk of overusing power.