https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/11/05/2024/0837

Published Date: 11 May 2024 at 0837

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all

11 May 2024 at 08:37. On 10 May 2024, the United Nations General Assembly voted on the UN Full Membership of Palestine (see the results of the Vote below). The results show 134 countries in Favour, 9 Countries Against, 26 Countries Abstained, and 15 countries Not Voted. However, if we look in depth at the 15 countries that did not vote, then 10 countries among them already recognized the State of Palestine (see below), so we have 144 countries (134+10) that back the self-determination of Palestine. Nevertheless, we have more a complicated picture if we take into account, countries that either already recognized the State of Palestine or voted in-favour the UN Full membership of Palestine (see below), so under this calculation, we have 167 countries that back the Self-Determination of Palestine versus 27 countries that either did not recognize yet the State of Palestine or voted Against/Abstained/Not Voted, still, we have only 5 countries that both did not recognize the State of Palestine and voted Against, namely USA, Israel, Micronesia, Palau, and Nauru.

 In the light of these results, two Big Risks evolved for the USA and Israel:

i) If the USA will insist on ignoring the decision of the Majority of UN members by Blocking the Self-Determination of Palestine, then my prediction is that the USA will suffer from losing its position as a Relevant Superpower at the global level. To clarify, for the EU, USA likely will continue to be a Superpower, but not for the other regions, such as Africa, South America, Asia and even the Middle East. The demand from the USA by too many countries in the last year to withdraw the USA forces from bases in foreign countries signals about the decrease in the Global Political Power of the USA, such as in the cases of Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and even countries in Africa. Importantly, the combination of the ‘Harsh Punishment’ by the USA against Russia due to the Ukraine War versus the 'Light Punishment’ by the USA against Israel due to the Gaza War, despite it should be the opposite if we look at the Death Toll, the Harsh devastation and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza compared to Ukraine, then this contradiction is going to backfire on the USA in a big way, especially due to Blocking the Self-Determination of Palestine. It may be possible to call it the Big Trigger for the Fall of the USA Empire.

ii) If we look at Israel, then the ‘Game is Over’ for Israel about the continuing with the Occupation of Palestine, because 167 countries back the Self-Determination of Palestine versus only 5 countries that currently Oppose the Self-Determination of Palestine including Israel. That means for Israel significant International isolation at the economic and Political Levels, regardless of the War Costs and Casualties if Israel will not end immediately the Occupation of Palestine. Otherwise, my prediction is that Israel will pay a very high price for continuing with the Occupation of Palestine that eventually will be for nothing because, at the end of the day, Palestine will achieve their Self-Determination with the approval of Israel or without it, so it is better for Israel to accept the reality instead of ignoring it. Importantly, Israel made too many mistakes to count at the Military Level and International Level to release the hostages including unrealistic objectives like the elimination of Hamas, which would have been the same if the British Army had decided to eliminate the Haganah in 1946. All of us know what happened, eventually, the British Army withdrew from Palestine to allow the establishment of the Two-States Solution, and the Haganah became IDF. UK withdrew from country after country due to the inability to hold Nations under colonialism and Occupation, so it is better for Israel to understand it sooner than later to save more useless casualties on both sides.     

134 Countries that Voted in Favour on Full UN Membership of Palestine

144 Countries that Voted in Favour on Full UN Membership of Palestine (134 countries) or Not Voted yet Recognize the State of Palestine (10 countries)

164 Countries that Recognize Palestine or Voted in Favour on Full UN Membership of Palestine

UN Results Vote regarding Full Membership of the State of Palestine, 10 May 2024