https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/14/05/2024/0745

Published Date: 14 May 2024 at 0745

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all

14 May 2024 at 07:45. When you have a Hostage Situation, then the best way to deal with it is via negotiation to prevent casualties among the Hostages and among the forces that are responsible for releasing the Hostages. Before more than 7 months, the Hamas carried out a Surprise Attack against Israel as part of the Palestinian resistance fight against Israel to end the Israeli Occupation of Palestine. During this attack, Hamas took to Gaza 252 Hostages from the Israeli territory, as part of the attempt of Hamas to release thousands of Palestinians that are in captive in Israel, most of them without trial but under Detention Act namely, the Israeli forces used to take Palestinians from their homes without any explanations and without going through the Israeli justice system, so from the point of view of the Palestinians, the Israeli Detention Act is equivalent to 'Hostage Act'. Therefore, at that point, Israel had two options: Getting into negotiation with the Hamas to release the Hostages or making a Military Operation/War to release the Hostages. Israel decided to release the Hostages via a Military Operation. However, after 7 months, we definitely can say that the Military Operation to release the Hostages failed, so the question is whether this failure was predicted in the first place. If I look at that from any perspective, Israel should have understood in the first place that a military operation would fail and that the best way to deal with it is via negotiation. Why?

• Tunnels. Hamas over many years get ready for a Big War with Israel by creating Networking of Tunnels inside Gaza and Networking of Tunnels from Gaza to Israel and From Gaza to Egypt, which allow the movement of people, weapons and goods via the Tunnels.

• Intense Building Area in a very Small Area Size that has a high population density. Gaza Strip has 365 km2 with 2,375,259 million people (2022) and with a Density of 6,507/km2, which makes it easy for defence and Hiding Hostages.

Therefore, under the Combination of Networking of Tunnels under an Intense Building Area in a very Small Area Size that has a high population density, then IDF has no chance to release the Hostages. Worse, Bombarding buildings or demolition them or burning them even makes it worse for releasing the Hostages by IDF, because it does not allow revealing the Networking of Tunnels or getting access to them from the top unless you know the access points like Hamas. Importantly, this combination allows Hamas to attack easily the IDF Forces, which explains the high number of injured Israeli soldiers. Much worse, the reality of high population density in a very small area makes it impossible to carry out Military Operation without creating Mass Killing of Palestinian Civilians as happened in Gaza, regardless of the high risk of killing Hostages by IDF during the Bombarding. Nevertheless, the Networking of Tunnels from the Gaza Strip to Egypt makes it possible even to take out the Hostages outside the Gaza Strip away from IDF. Hence, under this reality, either if some of the Hostages are still in Gaza or some of them Outside Gaza, any evacuation of Palestinians from Rafa to another area in Gaza will not help IDF to release the Hostages, but it more complicates Israel with a Genocide Trial via the International Criminal Court or even with Arrest warrants against the leadership of Israel and IDF via the International Criminal Court. Like many others in Crisis, the leadership of Israel made a wrong decision when IDF decided to start a LAND Military operation in Gaza to release the Hostages or to Eliminate Hamas, despite that both these objectives are not realistic under the Combination of Networking of Tunnels under an Intense Building Area in a very Small Area Size that has a high population density like Gaza. Thus, in this case, the only way is via negotiation. Otherwise, Israel takes the risk of All-Out War against her by an Arab Coalition if the Mass Killing of Palestinians will continue, which after that, nothing will be the same for Israel.