Risks Timeline of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

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16 May 2023 at 14:17. Over the last few months, we hear frequently news about the Ammunition Dispute of Bakhmut between the Wagner Military Group and the Russian Military. Following that, West intelligence agencies like UK intelligence analysed it as an indication that Russia will not have enough Ammunition to continue with the Ukraine war, so Why are they wrong?

First, we should keep in mind, that any army during a war should use ammunition smartly and effectively, as the warning that was given by the NATO chief and other military figures about overusing ammunition by the Ukrainian Army, resulting in running low on ammo in the West. Presents are always less appreciated compared to producing/buying something via hard work.

Considering the above, the Ammunition Dispute of Bakhmut reflects two different objectives by Russia regarding the Ukraine War:

• An Objective of Security Zone and Territorial Continuity: Security Zone aims to create a buffer zone between the Home Territory and the Rival Territory, while a Territorial Continuity aims to create a continuity of land between the Home Territory and a Separated Territory. Hence, Russia started the war via Military Operation with the objective of creating a Security Zone and Territorial Continuity by occupation and annexation of four regions - Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - that are supposed to create a Security Zone and Territorial Continuity with Crimea (see map below).

• An Objective of Overthrow Regime. Overthrow Regime aims to replace the Leadership of the Rival Regime with ‘Friendly Leadership’ that will cooperate with the Home Regime. Overthrow Regime could be achieved only by a takeover of the capital of the Rival Country or by eliminating the Rival Leadership. Russia at the start of the ‘Military Operation’ put also the objective of replacing Zealensky with a ‘Friendly Leader’ by takeover Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine via a land attack.

Therefore, at the start of the war, Russia tried in parallel to achieve a Security Zone and Territorial Continuity with Crimea alongside conquering Kyiv via a land attack to Overthrow the Zealensky Regime. However, the Russian Army did not evaluate correctly the ability of its force to achieve both objectives via ‘Military Operation’ based on limited mobilization, so at some point, Russia made a shift from two objectives to only one objective by withdrawing its land forces from Kyiv. Still, the Russian Army even did not evaluate correctly its ability to hold the lines in the annexation regions based on limited mobilization, so the Russian Army started to lose areas from the targeted ‘Security Zone and Territorial Continuity with Crimea’. In that stage, Russia started its Partially Mobilization with the objective to achieve the first objective of creating a ‘Security Zone and Territorial Continuity with Crimea’. Wagner Military Group got the spot in Bakhmut, one of the front lines of the Security Zone. However, when we started to hear from Wagner Cheif about the Ammunition Dispute with Russia, then Russia made a shift again from one objective to two objectives and even by giving priority to the objective of Overthrowing the Zelenskyy Regime via giving priority to Air Attacks on Kyiv, rather than on giving priority of advancing in Bakhmut, which has led UK intelligence to the wrong conclusion about the lack of Ammunition by Russia. Currently, the war in Ukraine entered the stage in the style of the First World War, namely the war drag on without that any side making a significant advance, so doubtful, if Russia under the concept of ‘Military Operation’ that based on Partially Mobilization will success to overcome Kyiv alongside to fully takeover the ‘Security Zone and Territorial Continuity with Crimea’ and even holding it. For achieving the two objectives in parallel is needed a concept of War that is based on General Mobilization, rather than a concept of ‘Military Operation’ that is based on Partially Mobilization.

Nevertheless, the big loser is Ukraine that totally wrong about the ability of the Ukraine army to win over the Russian army even with the ‘Weapons Gifts’ from USA and the West. My prediction is that eventually Ukraine will be needed to compromise with the ‘Red Lines’ of Russia to end this pointless war. When it will happen? Likely as in WWI, when the Ukraine army and the Ukrainian refugees will be exhausted from the devastation and casualties.

Even USA, NATO and West countries have taken a BIG RISK by reaching the point of Running Low on Ammo, because if a regional war will erupt or worse a world war, then NATO will be at a disadvantage point compared to other countries that did not empty their ammo and weapon storages for Ukraine.

Zelenskyy, West Leaders and NATO Leaders should get the hard decision, namely Compromising with Russia to end this pointless war that makes NATO weaker and weaker on each day that passes.