https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/17/09/2022/0919

Published Date: 17 September 2022 at 09:19

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:

Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: Analysing Risks in-Depth of Political Risks, Economic Risks, and Strategic Risks

Global Risks by Dr. Rozen-Bakher: Stimulating Thinking ‘Out of the Box’ on Ongoing Global Problems that have no Clear Solutions

Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Blog on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade to Identify Risks versus Opportunities

Dr. Rozen-Bakher’s Twitter Lists and Twitter Hashtags to Identify Risks for FDI and International Trade

17 September 2022 at 09:19. One of the critical failures in decision-making is when a significant change occurs in the factors involved in the decision, yet the decision-makers ignore them. Israel over many years, regularly, makes military provocation in Syria as part of the Israeliś deteration policy. However, since the start of the Russian-Ukraine war, everything was changed in terms of geopolitics and global order, especially for Israel. Russia no longer will protect Israel in case of regional military conflict because now, the strategic allies of Russia are the enemies of Israel like Iran, so if Russian allies are silent and even favourite the Russian military in Ukraine, then in return, Russia will be silent if a military conflict arises between Israel and its close and far neighbourhood countries. Worse, as time passes without the end of the Ukraine war, then the split between West and East will be more critical, unnecessarily good for the West, and likely will strengthen the rivals of Israel like Iran and even Syria, the loyal ally of Russia. Hence, my prediction is that in one of the military provocations of Israel, either in Palestine or in Syria, the rivals of Israel may use it as a trigger to start an all-out war with Israel. Even repeated provocations by Israel without ending the conflict with Palestine may trigger a surprise war against Israel by its bitter rivals as revenge along with the objective to end the Israeli occupation. Thus, under the new global order, Israel should not give a reason for an all-out war against her, by limiting unnecessary military provocations. Everyone knows that Israel has a strong army, yet it is not wise, even to strong army like Israel, to trigger all-out war, especially in the case of a small country like Israel that is surrounded by many rival countries. Israel should think twice before any unnecessary military provocation.