https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/28/01/2024/1044

Published Date: 28 January 2024 at 10:44

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all

28 January 2024 at 07:58. ‘Nothing is New under the Sun’ as mentioned in the Old Bible in Ecclesiastes 1, 9, which is relevant to the Houthi Problem if we look at that from a historical perspective, still, before we will surf into the past, let’s look at the risks that I predicted in May 2022 regarding the ‘Vassals War’ that will impact the Red Sea Route via Suez Canal.

• Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 26 May 2022, The Risk for Oil Tankers War - 'Lose-Lose Scenario': Do We Need Pirate-Military Units? https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/26/05/2022/2138

• Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 20 May 2022, The Huge Mistake of Germany to Withdraw From Nord Stream: The Cheap Gas via Nord Stream versus the Risky-Expensive Option of LNG Carriers via Suez Canal https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/20/05/2022/1748

However, the current Houthi Problem is based on ignoring the past, because until 1990, we had two Yemen countries: The Shia Islam Country - Yemen Arab Republic, and the Sunni Islam Country - South Yemen, so immediately after the Unification of Yemen, emerged the Houthi Problem due to ‘discrimination problems’ under the Sunni Regime in the unified Yemen. Hence, my prediction is that any attempt to force Houthis to live under the Sunni Regime will backfire the stability of the region, which is located in a strategic location, namely at the entrance of the Suez Canal via the Red Sea, resulting in significant economic damages to everyone, ‘Lose-Lose Scenario’. Nevertheless, even if the Houthis will get back their ‘Yemen Arab Republic’ as was before the unification of Yemen in 1990, likely that they will still resist the Israeli Occupation of Palestine as done by other Muslim players in the region like Hizballah, still, the question is whether the Houthis will use military acts against Israel as a formal country, or if they will transform it into a Diplomacy Channel. Nonetheless, bombarding Houthis by the USA Coalition will definitely not resolve the Houthi Problem at the entrance of the Suez Canal via the Red Sea, while Diplomacy has more chances for defusing the problem.

Yemeni unification - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_unification

Houthi Movement - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement

Current Distribution of Sunni and Shia in Yemen According to a UNHCR report from 2012:

• Shia "Zaydis make up about 45% of the Yemen population and there are also tiny minorities of other Shia groups—the Ismaili and Twelver communities

• Sunnis 53% of the Yemen population

Note: There is a contradiction among sources about the Distribution of Sunni and Shia in Yemen.

Recommended Book about the Islam Wars from 600AD until the 20th Century:

Glubb, J. B. (1969). A short history of the Arab peoples. Quartet Books, London