https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/30/12/2022/1531

Published Date: 30 December 2022 at 15:31

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

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30 December 2022 at 15:31. Not surprising that the Russian army and China army are going to strengthen their cooperation, still, the big question is if Russia and China are going to form counter-NATO. China today has 4 bilateral military/strategic agreements with Russia, North Korea, Argentina and the Solomon Islands, while Russia has a military alliance of CSTO with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members along with Afghanistan, Serbia, Syria, Iran, and Uzbekistan as Observer States. Besides, Russia and China have the BRICS Plus and the SCO that act as platforms for cooperation regarding trade but also regarding military cooperation (e.g. joint drills). Russia has also the CIS that Putin already suggested that these countries could join the military alliance, the CSTO. In addition, Russia has the EAEU that includes not only Central-Asia countries but also far countries, such as Cuba, and Syria as Observer States. Thereby, a military alliance between Russia and China could be at 3 layers. The First Layer is a bilateral defence between Russia and China. The Second Layer is a regional military alliance that will include CSTO and China Biliteral Defence and some countries of SCO. The Third Layer is a global military alliance that will include CSTO and China Biliteral Defence, as well as some countries of BRICS Plus, SCO, CIS and EAEU. We are formally in the First Layer, while informally/de-facto in the Second Layer, still, my speculation is that the Third Layer may develop faster than we assume.