https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/12/02/2023

Published Date: 12 February 2023

Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks

Monitoring Risks https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks-1

**Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher**

**A Researcher in International Relations and International Business with a Focus on Security and Political Risks & Economic and Strategic Risks** **Related to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), International Trade and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As)**

CV

USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition, 12 February 2023

Do we have USA Coalition versus Russia-China Coalition due to the Ukraine War?
Which countries belong to each Coalition?
Is the Global Order Changed due to the Ukraine War?
Is Russia-China Coalition formed a counter-NATO?

Analysis

Before the Ukraine war, the global order was based on three main superpowers: USA, Russia, and China. USA and China act as rivals in any aspect, while Russia positioned itself in the centre, between the EU and China, still, Russia and USA are for long old rivals since the cold war. However, the Ukraine war has changed the global order in a fundamental way. First, it forced each country to determine its position regarding the Ukraine war in a way that each country needed to decide if to join the sanctions against Russia or not, as well as to decide its position regarding the UN votes about the Ukraine war and Russia (UN Votes 1-6 below). Second, each country even needed to decide via UN vote if to preserve the current global order that is dominated by USA or to welcome a new global order that will be dominated by Russia and China (UN Vote 8 below). Third, the West sanctions pushed Russia to shift its trade from West countries to non-West countries, which has led to a significant change in the trade alliances, such as BRICS Plus and SCO, which have started to act not only as trade alliances but also as military alliances via frequent joint drills. Fourth, the Ukraine war also pushed Russia to deepen its strategic relations with China and even to form new strategic alliances, such as with Iran, which strengthened the political power of Iran in a significant way. It can be argued, that the joining of Iran as a member of the alliances of SCO and BRICS Plus alongside the backup that Iran got in the UNHRC (UN Vote 7 below) signals that Iran become an important strategic ally in the Russia-China Coalition.

Considering the above, as time passed since the start of the Ukraine war, it becomes clear that we have two coalitions: the USA coalition which includes countries that joined the sanctions against Russia and opposed the new economic order (UN Vote 8 below), and the Russia-China coalition which includes countries that did not join the sanctions against Russia and welcomed new economic order (UN Vote 8 below), and even gave backup to Russia in the UN votes by voted ‘Not Favour’ to Ukraine (UN Votes 1-6 below), especially by countries that are considered as the Core of Russia-China Coalition. Nevertheless, several countries like Turkey can be considered as ‘On the Fence’ because they did not choose one side in this conflict, yet we can not consider them as neutral countries but as countries that sit ‘On the Fence’ and wait to see who is going to be more powerful under the new global order.

To summarise, the Ukraine war has led to a ‘Merger of Allies’ between Russia and China in a way that each of them brought its allies to the joint coalition. To illustrate it, Russia and China coalition is like a merger of two superpowers in a way that each superpower brings its ‘strategic assets’ (allies) to the joint coalition, so the synergy of the allies has led to more global political power compared to the global political power of each superpower, Russia or China, before the merger. Importantly, this merger has led to a situation that Russia got access to the allies of China, while China got access to the allies of Russia, which has strengthened the global political power of Russia-China Coalition compared to USA Coalition. In other words, before the Ukraine war, USA was like a monopoly firm with two smaller rivals, Russia and China, while now, the merger between Russia and China formed like a unified big firm that has more ‘market share’ in terms of allies compared to USA. More specifically, my analysis shows that Russia-China Coalition includes 148 allies, while USA coalition includes only 48 allies, so Russia and China Coalition has more global political power compared to USA coalition in terms of the number of allies, population, area size and even gas and oil reserves, yet USA coalition has more global political power in terms of GDP, still, the 'big picture of the Crucial Country Indicators and Alliances (see below) shows that countries of Russia and China Coalition likely will increase its GDP in the mid-long-run by shifting the FDI and international trade from 'non-friendly countries' (Countries of USA coalition) to 'friendly countries' (Countries of Russia and China Coalition).

In the light of the above, my prediction is that the Ukraine war, instead to increase the global political power of USA, then it will lead to the opposite, to backfire on USA, especially in the long-run when Russia and China will achieve their objectives to change the economic system from domination by USA to domination by Russia and China. Paradoxically, the new 'Cold War' between USA and Russia has changed the geopolitics position of Russia from the Center (between USA and China) to the East (Closeness to China), so only reversing it may save USA from losing, in the long-run, its position as the leading superpower.

Methodology Notes

The methodology of my analysis includes a set of ‘Geopolitical Position Indicators’ to determine the geopolitics position of each country in order to distinguish which countries belong to the USA coalition and which countries belong to the Russia-China coalition. Besides, it also includes a set of ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ to get background about the important factors of each country, which allows comparing the ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ between countries and between coalitions. Hence, please see below the description of the ‘Geopolitical Position Indicators’ and the ‘Crucial Country Indicators’.

‘Geopolitical Position Indicators’

Sanctions against Russia. This indicator is based on the list of ‘Unfriendly Countries and Territories’ defined by Russia due to Sanctions that a certain country or territory imposed against Russia. The list of ‘Unfriendly Countries and Territories’ also includes Colonies, so please see the separate table for Colonies, still keep in mind, that Colonies have no Vote right in UN, so it is impossible to know the geopolitics position of a colony at the local level, which is particularly applied for Colonies that aim to be independent countries. A colony could be defined as a territory that has a long distance from the sovereign country or in the case that the location of the colony belongs naturally to another country or region.
Alliances. This indicator describes the alliances that each country belongs to, yet it refers only to alliances related to USA Coalition or Russia-China Coalition, both Military alliances and Multilateral Trade alliances. In other words, this indicator does not include bilateral Trade alliances between two certain countries or Multilateral Trade alliances that USA or China or Russia does not belong to, still, it includes the EU to distinguish between countries that belong only to the EU and not to NATO. However, this indicator includes both bilateral Military alliances and multilateral Military alliances, still, that USA or China or Russia belong to.
Religion. This indicator refers to the major religion in a country, which gives an additional background about the country. In general, among Muslim countries more exist antagonism towards USA, which impacts their geopolitical position.
Involvement in WWII. This indicator gives a past perspective on the involvement of each country in WWII, namely if a country or a past colony was actively involved in WWII or if it kept on neutrality policy, fully or partially via giving assistance.
UN votes. This indicator gives a more clear picture of the geopolitics position of each country, regardless of the country position towards the sanctions against Russia.
- UN Votes 1-6. Since the start of the Ukraine war, took place six UN votes that related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, two votes by the UN security council and four votes by the UN General Assembly, which reveals the position of each country regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- UN Vote 7. It refers to the vote that was carried out by the UN Human Right Council regarding how Iran handled the riots in Iran. Iran become a strategic ally in Russia-China Coalition, so this vote reveals how the core of the Russia-China Coalition unified beyond Iran against this resolution that was mainly led by the USA Coalition.
- UN Vote 8. The vote regarding New International Economic Order that organised by Russia is the most important UN vote in relation to the ability to distinguish between countries that would like to keep the current global order that is dominated by USA (Vote Against by USA Coalition) and countries that would like to change the current global order in a way that Russia and China will be the dominant superpowers instead of USA (Vote Favour by Russia-China Coalition).
- Additional Remarks about UN Votes.
  - Not Voted. Please see the Table NOT VOTED in UN Votes - Russia-China Coalition - Sorted by Number of Not Voted in order to understand that Not Voted and repeated Not Voted, in particular, is served de-facto as Against the USA Coalition or as Favour to Russia-China Coalition, depends on the nature of the vote. Likely that a "secret vote" would have revealed the true position of these countries without the fear of pressure.
  - Favour versus Not Favour in UN Votes 1-7. To distinguish between countries that voted in favour with the line of USA coalition versus countries that voted ‘Not in Favour’, we should take into account the votes of Against, Abstained, and Not Voted to see the total of ‘Not in Favour’ that de-facto refers to countries that did not give their support to USA coalition. In other words, countries that voted ‘Not in Favour’ gave their support to Russia-China Coalition instead of to USA coalition.
    - Favour in UN Votes 1-7 = Total of Favour = USA Coalition
    - Not Favour in UN Votes 1-7 = Total of Against, Abstained, and Not Voted = Russia-China Coalition
  - Against versus Not Against in UN Vote 8. To distinguish between countries that voted ‘Against’ changing the dominance of USA versus countries that voted ‘Not Against’, we should take into account the votes of Favour, Abstained, and Not Voted to see the total of ‘Not Against’ that de-facto refers to countries that do not want to keep the current dominance of USA. In other words, countries that voted ‘Not Against’ gave their support to Russia-China Coalition instead of to USA coalition.
    - Against in UN Vote 8 = Total of Against = USA Coalition
    - Not Against in UN Vote 8 = Total of Favour, Abstained, and Not Voted = Russia-China Coalition

Considering the above, looking at each country regarding the Geopolitics Position indicators allows determining if the country belongs to the USA coalition or to Russia-China coalition or if the country sits ‘On the Fence’.

‘Crucial Country Indicators’

The ‘Crucial Country Indicators’ give background about the important factors of each country, which allows comparing them between countries and between coalitions. Keep in mind, that exist countless important indicators at the country level, yet this analysis includes five prominent indicators that impact the global political power of a country, as follows:

Population. The population size of a country impacts the Market Size of International Trade (Exports and Imports) and even FDI, but it also impacts the military capabilities of a country in terms of the army size, which could be critical in long wars.
GDP. The GDP of a country reflects the economic level of a country, which impacts the consumption, standard of living and development of a country in any field, such as advanced technology and science, and advanced weapons.
Area Size. The area size of a country can be considered a strategic asset of a country, especially in relation to natural resources and surviving in long wars. Countries with a big area size have more likelihood to survive long wars and even to resist an invasion attempt compared to countries with a small area size. This particularly applies in 21st-century wars that include warfare of missiles and drones. Nuclear warfare should be out of the 'War Games', yet countries with a big area size have the chance even to survive a limited nuclear war.
Gas Reserves. Countries with significant proved reserves of Natural Gas have tremendous global political power because natural gas became a relatively rare natural resource that only a small group of countries have it.
Oil Reserves. Oli reserves consider less rare compared to reserves of natural gas, yet countries with significant proved reserves of oil have significant global political power, still, it is also because of OPEC that keeps the political power of the oil countries by controlling the production, prices and exports.

Tables and Charts

Summary Table of Geopolitical Position - Sorted by Coalition

Summary Table of Crucial Country Indicators - Sorted by Coalition

Chart of Sanctions against Russia

Charts of Religion by Coalition

Table of Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators - All Countries - Sorted by a-b

Table Colonies - Sorted by a-b

Note: NATO does not cover Colonies and Dependent Territories

Map of Colonies (see below the interactive map)

USA Coalition

Table of Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators - USA Coalition - Sorted by Population

Table Alliances of USA Coalition - Sorted by a-b

Note: NATO does not cover Colonies and Dependent Territories

Table Colonies - Sorted by Sovereign Country

Russia-China Coalition

Table of Geopolitical Position Indicators and Crucial Country Indicators - Russia-China Coalition - Sorted by Population

Table NOT VOTED in UN Votes - Russia-China Coalition - Sorted by Number of Not Voted

Not Voted serves de-facto as Against the USA Coalition or as Favour to Russia-China Coalition, depending on the nature of the vote. Likely that a "secret vote" would have revealed the true position without the fear of pressure.