Iran Nuclear Deal Under Iranian President Raisi
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/01/09/2022/1714
Published Date: 01 September 2022 at 17:14
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:
01 September 2022 at 17:14. Unfortunately, the policy of Israel regarding the previous Iran nuclear deal that was signed in 2015 has led to a backfire situation and even for existing threat for Israel, so each option now is less good compared to the situation before the withdrawal from the deal by Trump-Netanyahu. The famous phrase says that when a stupid throws a stone into a water well, then even 100 wise people will not succeed to save the stone. Biden and the EU try hard to save the stone, yet the stone never will be the same after more than 4 years in the button of the water well, so any option now is less good compared to the situation in 2018 because it led to a regime transformation in Iran in a way that the hardliner, President Raisi, won the election in Iran, and after that, he has led to a significant change in Iran that eventually led to bypass the sanctions against Iran by getting help from non-West countries, such China and Russia. We can ask the question of why former President Iran Rouhani did not succeed to bypass the sanctions, while Raisi did it. The answer is simple but also signals why the situation is very complicated now. Rouhani managed Iran according to the Book without significant manipulation, and because of that, many non-democratic countries less have the ability to close with him secret deals, while Raisi is different in nature from Rouhani, so East non-democratic countries found a common ground with Raisi in terms of closing deals to bypass the West sanction.
Under the current situation, the options are limited, and none of them is ideal, so the West and Israel need to choose the less bad option, so letś analysis the options from the viewpoint of the West and Israel:
Option I - Renew the Iran Nuclear Deal
Advantages: The nuclear project in Iran will be under control. More oil will be in the market. Balance in the Iran position between West and East.
Disadvantages: Iran will have more money to advance its regional power because of the release of the frozen money and the cancellation of the sanctions. Iran will have more regional power and money to help to end the Israeli occupation of Palestine, yet Iran will try to advance it either ways, with a deal or without a deal.
Option II - Not Renew the Iran Nuclear Deal - Dragging the negotiation or even taking a long pause.
Advantages: From the viewpoint of Israel - Iran will have less money because of the frozen assets and continuing with the sanctions.
Disadvantages: Less oil in the market. Iran will not have the obligation to not produce nuclear bombs, so it will likely lead to the situation that Iran will have eventually nuclear bombs. Iran may act more in an aggressive way regarding ending the occupation of Palestine.
Option III - Military attack against the nuclear plants of Iran
The most complicated option is the military option because unclear if it will lead to nuclear disaster. Worse, unclear if Iran has already nuclear bombs by producing them in Iran or by getting a few ones for self-defence from other countries that have nuclear bombs, so exists a big risk that a military attack against the nuclear plants in Iran will lead to a regional nuclear war. My assumption is that the repeated military threat attack against the nuclear plants in Iran in the last 4 years by Trump and recently by Israel, likely may lead Iran to possess some nuclear bombs in case the West will attack Iran, so exists a high risk in the military option if Iran has already had nuclear bombs. Besides, it is also possible that one of the superpowers promised to protect Iran in case of a military attack, so there is a high risk of regional war and beyond that.
As I mentioned, none of the options above is perfect from the viewpoint of the West and Israel, yet the worse one and the riskiest one due to harsh revenge is the military option. Think Twice.
