https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/07/04/2024/0500

Published Date: 07 April 2024 at 05:00

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all

07 April 2024 at 05:00. Recently, I have been busy with the finalization of my 2024 Global Survival Rank, but Germany is a very important country, so I am taking a break to write this comment, yet I will make it easy by forwarding you to my two previous comments about this topic (see below), so let’s say that now, I make a 'Merger’ of these two comments. Thereby, in 2022, a year before the rise of AfD, I already predicted the rise of the Far-Right in Germany, not because I looked at my coffee cup, but only because I analysed the past in relation to the present, so my suggestion is that now you will read my two previous comments below. OK, now you are ready for the ‘Merger’ of these two comments. To make the story short, Germany Reunification is a success story (but always what comes after the But is more important), But it also has a Negative Implication namely, the spread of the Nazis from East Germany into West Germany including into the German Political System. More specifically, the hunting of Nazis at the end of WWII, led to the flow of Nazis into East Germany, but after the Unification between West Germany and East Germany, the Nazis started to return to West Germany including rising their Political Power in East Germany without fear. Worse, even the Nazis that run away from Germany to South America (e.g. Argentina) have started to return to Germany without any fear. This Empowering political process of the Nazis has become more visible as time passed, still, the Big question is if exists a real risk for the Rise of the Fourth Reich? My First research paper was when I studied B.A in Political Sciences was on how Hitler manipulated the Weak Democracy in Germany to become a Dictator (Rozen-Bakher, Z. (1997). The Factors that Led to the Rise of Dictator Hitler: Was Preventable WWII?. B.A. Working Paper, University of Haifa), so my prediction is that the Far-Right in Germany that includes Nazis will find the way to get into the 'Democratic System’ in Germany, still, the Big question is if a German Far-Right leader can become again a Chancellor of Germany to fulfil objectives based on the Nazis Ideology? If we look at what happened in other European countries, then this is a real scenario.   

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 01 May 2022, NATO Paradox - Russia Out while Germany In: Historical Perspective https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/01/05/2022/0701  

01 May 2022 at 07:01. To understand risks, we must look at the Past, Present, and Future. If we look at WWII, then NATO should include Russia and not Germany because Russia fought against the Reich III from East-North, while the West allies from West-South until together they overcame the Nazis. However, Paradoxically, NATO includes Germany and not Russia because, after WWII, the USA opposed the option of including Russia in NATO due to communism, but more importantly, because of the desire of the USA to become a hegemonic superpower, thereby, the USA considers Russia as a rival, which applies until today. Besides, NATO was established in 1949, while West Germany joined NATO in 1955 when West Germany was still separated from East Germany. Keep in mind, that after the end of WWII, high-rank Nazi officers escaped to countries outside Europe like Argentina to avoid punishment, while mid-rank Nazis escape to East Germany. Hence, the decision of NATO to allow West Germany to join NATO was based on the reasoning that West Germany was never the stronghold of the Nazis alongside that West Germany will preserve pacifism as expected from Germany since WWII. However, in 1990, West Germany was unified with East Germany, so ironically, since 1990, NATO includes East Germany which was the stronghold of the Nazis. Importantly, at the beginning of the German reunification and based on Berlin-Bonn Act, West Germany from the capital Bonn was the prominent actor in the German internal politics and as a result, it defined the Foreign policy of Germany, but as the time passed, East Germany from the capital Berlin has started to be the prominent actor in the German internal politics, still, the former Chancellor Angela Merkel kept on German pacifism. However, the German new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is a different story. His acts signal that he would like to revive Germany as the Fourth Reich, namely positioning Germany as a military superpower to secure global political power, while abandoning the pacifism policy of Germany. What is the risk? History repeats itself. A Nation with a history of creating an Empire via occupied territories may do it again in the future. However, if it will happen again with Germany, then who will protect against Germany if Germany is part of NATO? The paradox story of NATO, Russia and Germany proves that in the geopolitics game of the USA everything is possible even to create a military alliance like NATO that includes the enemy Germany, despite that the military alliance was established to protect against Germany, while Russia that sacrificed millions to release Europe from the Nazis became the enemy of NATO. Worse, now, the USA is going to help Germany to revive the Fourth Reich. Why? Because it’s good for the American defence industry to boost the sale of weapons in €100 billion to Germany.

Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 17 September 2022, The Risk of Fourth Reich https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/17/09/2022/0343

17 September 2022 at 15:43. Any country has the right to have the best army, yet Germany is not a regular country if we look at it from a historical perspective. The far-right of Germany, the Nazis, were responsible for the trigger of WWII that led to the death of around 80 million people worldwide, so Germany is not a regular country. However, Scholz may argue that was passed 75 years since WWII, so there is no reason to take it into account. To understand why Scholz is wrong, I will illustrate a scenario that could happen, especially in the current wave of the far-right in Europe, and in Germany, in particular, because Nazism in Germany still exists, below the surface - secretly, and even publicly. Letś's assume that the current German government is a responsible one without any objective to become the Fourth Reich. Thus, Germany under Scholz will make the German army the best army in Europe by buying the best and most sophisticated weapons from the USA and other Western countries. Nonetheless, after Germany will become the best army in Europe, time will pass by, and suddenly, a new version of far-right-nazis will rise to power in Germany, yet obviously, nothing in the party name will mention Nazisem, still, their objectives may reflect the Forth Reich. As we know, it took many years for Hitler to become a Dictator and start his expansion in Europe to make Germany an Empire by invasion other countries. Hitler could have done it because he had the best army in Europe. If this scenario will happen, then who will save Europe? Is it will be NATO that was formed against Germany? But, paradoxically, NATO includes Germany, while Russia which sacrificed around 24 million people to take down Hitler is out of NATO. Looking at the current wave of the far-right in Europe, such as in France, Italy, and even Sweden signals that this scenario is possible. Thus, Germany can be the best economic empire in Europe but not yet the best military empire in Europe.