Premature Euphoria: Ukraine Retakes Territories
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/risks-timeline/08/10/2022/0319
Published Date: 08 October 2022 at 03:19.
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher: https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks-all
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
08 October 2022 at 03:19. If we look at Western newspapers, then exists euphoria that Ukraine wins the war because the Ukrainian army succeeded in retaking some areas from the annexation regions, and Zelenskyy even has the illusion that he is going to retake Crimea. However, when I analyse the whole situation, then I am not joined to this euphoria, on the contrary, I am worried because of this euphoria, especially due to Ukraine's policy to continue with this war without compromising. In wars, changing tactics is the based for winning a war rather than only winning some battlefields, and it seems that Russia has changed its tactics with the objective of a full invasion of Ukraine, or more precisely, the war will continue until Russia ends the Zelenskyy regime in Ukraine. When the Russian special operation started, Russia was focused on the two separate regions, but now, the tactics have changed. Instead of a small army force that is supposed to focus on a small area, then now, Russia puts efforts into mass mobilisation, including training before the entry of the troops into the war zone alongside airstrikes of many cities to make the ground ready for the invasion of land troops. At the tactics level, Russia moved from a short-term military operation to a long-term war, so during the transformation period, Ukraine may retake some areas, and after that, Russia will take them back. One thing is for sure: Russia is not in a hurry to enter reserve troops into Ukraine to ´save’ some settlements from being retaken by Ukraine. Russia has a long-term plan for Ukraine, and it follows this plan even if there are some setbacks. Still, when we change tactics, the transformation should be as short as possible to avoid setbacks, so the big open question is if Russia will deal effectively with this tactic transformation, yet I won´t be surprised if Russia has a tactical surprise for Ukraine.
