Russian Counter-Sanctions: The Replacement of West Exporters with East Exporters
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/16/04/2022/0833
Published Date: 16 April 2022 at 08:33
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16 April 2022 at 08:33. Iranian brands are likely not the same as the leading West brands, but for the ordinary people in Russia and other countries from Russia Coalition, it could be satisfying and even cheaper. This is an example of the counter-sanctions by Russia against the ‘Unfriendly countries’ that imposed sanctions against Russia. My analysis indicates that this mechanism of counter-sanctions by the Russia Coalition against the USA Coalition has started by replacing exporters from the USA Coalition with exporters from the Russia Coalition, resulting in increasing exports among countries from the Russia Coalition versus decreasing the exports among countries from the USA coalition. This mechanism of counter-sanctions by the East against the West started before the Ukraine war, but it intensified after the sanctions against Russia. The last UN vote about the suspension of Russia from the Human Rights Council proved that the Russian coalition is even more united against the USA coalition compared to the start of the Ukraine war. Hence, those in the West that underestimated the power of the counter-sanctions by the Russia Coalition against the West, should think twice because this 'war-sanctions' will hit badly the West's economics in the years to come. That's because the Russian coalition is bigger than the USA coalition. Nonetheless, it takes time to replace exporters yet when it is done, then it will lead to a permanent loss for exporters from the West. This 'War-sanctions' is like a 'Zero-sum Game' in which the revenue of one exporter from the Russian coalition increases, while the revenue of another exporter from the USA coalition decreases. That 'Zero-sum Game' is particularly applied in times of slowdown and recession. Hence, my assessment is that the exports of the USA coalition will decrease progressively according to the replacement of exporters from the Russian coalition. The bad news for the West is that this process is not revertable because Russia will not forgive for trying to crash their economy via creating technical default.
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