Japan: Risk for Regime Transformation

17 Apr

Written By Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

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17 April 2023 at 09:25. Is Japan at risk for regime transformation? Based on my analysis, YES, still, unclear yet to which direction it go in terms of which alternative regime will arise and if it will eventually happen and when. One thing is for sure two political assassinations in less than one year - one that assassinated the Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the second one, the attempt from yesterday against the current PM of Japan - signals that internal players have tried to lead to regime transformation in Japan. As I discussed in the analysis on my Global Risks about Political Assassinations, political assassination has similarity to a coup, yet coups are committed by military players, while political assassinations are committed by civil players, which eventually lead to the same outcome, namely to regime transformation, still, coup leads to a fast outcome, while a political assassination can lead to a fast outcome or trigger a change in the mid-long run.

However, the BIG question is why has started an attempt for regime transformation in Japan? If we look at Japan from all aspects, then perhaps the answer lies in the reduction in the absolute number of the Japanese population that shakes the foundations of the country (see my previous comments below about this topic).

Nevertheless, Hofstede defined Japan as a country with 95 Masculinity (see below), which ranks Japan as one of the most Masculine societies in the world, still, Is Japan going through a Feminist Revolution? Likely, YES, so there is a direct link between the Feminist Revolution in Japan and the shrinking of the Japanese population. Hence, under these circumstances, civil players in Japan try to take advantage of this weak situation and topple the current regime.

No simple solution for Japan unless hard decisions will be taken by the current regime in Japan to preserve the regime via adaptation and cultural openness. Otherwise, the change may be forced by internal civil players that again and again, will try to transform the regime in Japan.