Iran Nuclear Deal
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/17/02/2022
Published Date: 17 February 2022
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Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
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Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
A Researcher in International Relations and International Business with a Focus on Security and Political Risks & Economic and Strategic Risks Related to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), International Trade and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As)
Iran Nuclear Deal, 17 February 2022
Decision on Iran nuclear deal days away, ball in Tehran's court - France | Reuters
House Republicans warns Biden against another nuclear deal with Iran | Fox News
Naftali Bennett urges Bahrain to join Israel’s alliance against Iran | World | The Times
Israel sends diplomats to Vienna for Iran nuclear talks (msn.com)
Phase I: Iran Nuclear Deal and the Withdrawal from the Deal, 2015-2018
Iran nuclear deal 2015 was supposed to control the nuclear program of Iran, yet Israel under the Netanyahu administration opposed the deal and pushed the former President Trump to withdraw from the deal in May 2018 including imposing severe sanctions on Iran. Since then, Iran withdraws from some of the deal commitments, and importantly, the withdrawal from the deal even transformed the political arena in Iran in terms of electing hard-liner president, Mr. Ebrahim Raisi in 08/2021 instead of a reformist president like the former president of Iran, Mr. Hassan Rouhani that made the Iran nuclear deal 2015. Under the Iran constitution, the President of Iran could be elected to a maximum of 2 terms, so Mr. Hassan Rouhani was elected twice to the President of Iran, and in the election in 2017, he even won the election against the current president Ebrahim Raisi (Rouhani-57.1% vs. Raisi 38.28%). However, after the withdrawal from the deal, in the election in 2021, Raisi won 72.35% against other rivals, still, the turnout was very lower namely, 48.48% in 2021 vs. 73.33% in 2017, which may reflect the unpopularity of the hard-liners in the public in Iran, still, it may reflect the mood of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, due to repeated threat against Iran by the USA and their severe sanctions against Iran. The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, gave his blessing to the Iran nuclear deal 2015 under President Rouhani, based on the religious Islam belief that using mass nuclear weapons should be avoided. However, the withdrawal from the deal by Trump in 2018, has created untrust in the USA in terms of fear in Iran that the next USA president, especially a Republican USA President, may withdraw again from the deal discussed today.
Phase II: After the Withdrawal and the Attempts to Revive the Deal, 2018-Current
Under this situation, the important question that arises if Iran will agree now to resume the nuclear deal?
We can assume that if the former President Trump did not withdraw from the nuclear deal, then today, likely, Iran has a reformist president like Mr. Rouhani instead of the current hard-liner President Raisi. However, under the current situation when Iran has a hard-liner president, unlikely, that Iran will compromise on its ‘red lines', especially regarding getting a guarantee from the USA that any next president won’t withdraw from the deal, while the Republicans not only will oppose any giving guarantee but also actively oppose making any nuclear deal with Iran. Given that, only a creative solution that unlikely exists under the democratic mechanism of the USA, may allow resuming the nuclear deal.
In the light of the above, perhaps, the next important question that arises is if it’s possible to give a guarantee to Iran that any next USA president won’t withdraw from the deal? and if it's possible to close the gap between the important actors involved in the deal?
Iran - They oppose resuming the deal without getting a guarantee that any next president won’t withdraw from the deal in the future.
USA Democrats - They favour resuming the deal, yet doubtful if any guarantee could provide for avoiding withdrawal from the deal in the future.
USA Republican - They oppose any realistic nuclear deal with Iran and will oppose giving any guarantee that the next Republican president won’t withdraw from the deal in the future.
Israel - They oppose the current nuclear deal with Iran, and even try to establish a Gulf coalition against Iran.
EU - They favour the current nuclear deal, yet they have no say about USA’s guarantee.
Russia and China - They favour the current nuclear deal, yet they provide an alternative to Iran to bypass some of the negative implications of USA sanctions via the joining of Iran as a new member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) (see Iran Sanctions and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO))
Is it possible to fill the gap between the actors to resume the Iran Nuclear Deal? Likely not.
Update, 14 June 2024, Additional Analyses of Iran Nuclear Deal
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 01 September 2022, Iran Nuclear Deal Under Iranian President Raisi https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/01/09/2022/1714
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 02 May 2022, The Huge Mistake of Netanyahu-Trump: The USA Withdrawal From the Nuclear Deal Led to a Regime Transformation in Iran From a Progressive Leader to a Hardliner Leader https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/02/05/2022/1752
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher, 05 March 2022, The Significant Gap between the West and Iran to Revive the Iran Nuclear Deal https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/05/03/2022/0913
