Russia’s Counter-Sanctions: ‘Gazprom-Weapon’
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/07/02/2022
Published Date: 07 February 2022
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Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks
Monitoring Risks https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks-1
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade
Russia’s Counter-Sanctions: ‘Gazprom-Weapon’, 7 February 2022
The main observations about Ukraine-Russia Crisis are on the scope of the military deployment of the Russian army near the Ukraine border, which weapons are deployed, and when the Russian army will be ready for a full invasion of Ukraine, while the other attention is on the scope of upcoming sanctions against Russia by the USA and its allies in case of invasion. Still, less attention is given to the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ of Russia against the USA allies in Europe and, importantly, how President Putin is getting ready for counter-sanctions via the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against European countries that will impose sanctions against Russia.
Hence, the attention on the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ of Russia against European countries should focus on the following issues:
Will Russia stop the gas supply to European countries that will impose sanctions against Russia?
Is Russia in the process of shifting its gas from the West to the East (e.g., China) as part of the ‘deployment’ of ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against European countries that will impose sanctions against Russia?
Are the European countries that are going to join the sanctions against Russia ready with alternative gas sources in case Russia uses the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against them?
How will using the ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ by Russia impact the economic and political stability in European countries in terms of higher gas prices, gas shortages, inflation, demonstrations, and even falling governments?
Has Russia already established a ‘Gas Coalition’ with its allies as counter-sanctions to prevent alternative gas sources to European countries?
Looking in-depth at the leading countries with gas reserves reveals the high risk of ‘Gazprom-Weapon’ against European countries as counter-sanctions:
‘Russian Gas Coalition’: Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria.
‘West Gas Coalition’: USA
In the middle: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
Note: Likely that Qatar will join the ‘Russian Gas Coalition’ due to the influence of China and Iran. Turkmenistan has a neutral foreign policy, while Iran and Afghanistan are among the main allies of Russia, so likely that if they exported gas to Europe, then it will be at a minimum-symbolic level. Nigeria is heavily dependent on China, so Nigeria will likely join the ‘Russian Gas Coalition’. Algeria has strong relations with Russia and China, so it is likely that it will be at a minimum-symbolic level to Europe.
If Russia invades Ukraine, then the high risk for European countries is not a war in its cities but likely cold houses and higher prices of gas due to the gas shortage. The ‘Winter is Coming’ may significantly impact Europe in the years to come in case of long ‘war-sanctions’ between Russia and the West.
