Iran Nuclear Deal

Written By Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/17/02/2022

Published Date: 17 February 2022

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Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

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Iran Nuclear Deal, 17 February 2022

Decision on Iran nuclear deal days away, ball in Tehran's court - France | Reuters

House Republicans warns Biden against another nuclear deal with Iran | Fox News

Iran's FM Says in Call With EU's Borrell: Iran Won't Back Down From Its Red Lines - Ministry Tweet | World News | US News

Naftali Bennett urges Bahrain to join Israel’s alliance against Iran | World | The Times

Israel sends diplomats to Vienna for Iran nuclear talks (msn.com)

Phase I: Iran Nuclear Deal and the Withdrawal from the Deal, 2015-2018

The Iran nuclear deal of 2015 was supposed to control the nuclear program of Iran (see below), yet Israel under the Netanyahu administration opposed the deal and pushed the former President Trump to withdraw from the deal in May 2018 (see below), including imposing severe sanctions on Iran. Since then, Iran has withdrawn from some of the deal commitments, and importantly, the withdrawal from the deal even transformed the political arena in Iran in terms of electing hard-liner president, Mr. Ebrahim Raisi in 08/2021 instead of a reformist president like the former president of Iran, Mr. Hassan Rouhani, who made the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Under the Iranian constitution, the President of Iran could be elected to a maximum of 2 terms in a row, so Mr. Hassan Rouhani was elected twice as the President of Iran, and in the election in 2017, he even won the election against the current president, Ebrahim Raisi (Rouhani 57.1% versus Raisi 38.28%, see below). However, after the withdrawal from the deal, in the election in 2021, Raisi won 72.35% against other rivals, yet the turnout was very low, namely 48.48% in 2021 versus 73.33% in 2017, which may reflect the unpopularity of the hard-liners in the public in Iran. Still, the election of a hard-liner may also reflect the mood of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, due to repeated threats against Iran by the USA, including severe sanctions against Iran by the USA and its allies.

Phase II: After the Withdrawal and the Attempts to Revive the Deal, 2018-Current

The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, gave his blessing to the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 under President Rouhani, based on the Islamic religious belief that using mass nuclear weapons should be avoided. However, the withdrawal from the deal by Trump in 2018, has created distrust in the USA in terms of fear in Iran that the next USA president, especially a Republican USA President, may withdraw again from the deal as discussed so far.

Under this situation, the important question that arises is if Iran agrees to resume the nuclear deal.

We can assume that if the former President Trump did not withdraw from the nuclear deal, then today, likely, Iran would have a reformist president like Mr. Rouhani instead of the current hard-liner President Raisi. However, under the current situation when Iran has a hard-liner president, it is unlikely that Iran will compromise on its ‘red lines', especially regarding getting a guarantee from the USA that any next president won’t withdraw from the deal. Although the Republicans not only oppose any giving of a guarantee, but they also actively oppose making any nuclear deal with Iran. Given that, only a creative solution that unlikely exists under the democratic mechanism of the USA, may allow resuming the nuclear deal.

In light of the above, perhaps the next important question that arises is if it’s possible to give a guarantee to Iran that any next USA president won’t withdraw from the deal? and if it's possible to close the gap between the important actors involved in the deal?

  • Iran – They oppose resuming the deal without getting a guarantee that any next president won’t withdraw from the deal in the future.

  • USA Democrats – They favour resuming the deal, but it is doubtful if any guarantee could provide for avoiding withdrawal from the deal in the future.

  • USA Republicans – They oppose any realistic nuclear deal with Iran and oppose giving any guarantee that the next Republican president won’t withdraw from the deal in the future.

  • Israel – They oppose the current nuclear deal with Iran, and they even try to establish a ‘Gulf Coalition’ against Iran.

  • EU – They favour the current nuclear deal, but they have no say about the USA’s guarantee.

  • Russia and China – They favour the current nuclear deal, but they have provided alternatives to Iran to bypass some of the negative implications of USA sanctions, including the joining of Iran to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a new member (see Sanctions against Iran and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)).

Is it possible to fill the gap between the actors to resume the Iran Nuclear Deal? Likely not.

Additional Updated Posts on the Iran Nuclear Deal From Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

 
Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher - A Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/
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