The Risk for Failure of Israeli Intelligence
https://www.rozen-bakher.com/timeline-risks/21/11/2022/1348
Published Date: 21 November 2022 at 13:48
Risks Timeline by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
Comments on Contemporary Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher
From other Research Activities of Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher:
21 November 2022 at 13:48. I was 10 years old in 1973 when the war sirens brock the silence of Yom-Kippur. After I entered the shelter with my family, the radio started to publish the general mobilization of the IDF. I still remember the countless ‘reserve codes’ that the radio published. The Yom-Kippur war from the side of Israel was a surprise war because the intel chief of IDF failed to predict the surprise attack, despite all the 'red flags'. The intel army chief has a critical role because it should evaluate the military threats in order to get the right decisions, such as if needed a change in the military deployment or general mobilization to prevent a surprise attack, or vice versa, if not needed any move because not exists a real threat, which allows saving costs of useless mobilization.
If an Israeli politician will argue that Iran is going to attack the world cup, then likely I would not mention it because politicians say ridiculous things as part of populism policy. However, when the intel chief of IDF assessed a ridiculous risk that Iran may attack the world cup, then it signals about a big problem, namely the lack of assessing the reality at the regional level, which can backfire in both directions, namely assessing a threat that does not exists, or vice versa, not understanding a real threat. I hope for Israel that surprise sirens will not break the silence one day, but under such illusional intelligence, then my prediction is that the risk is high.