Israel - Apartheid State?: Two-State Solution vs. One-State Solution

Written By Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks/06/02/2022

Published Date: 06 February 2022

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Monitoring Risks by Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Analysing in-Depth Security & Political Risks and Economic & Strategic Risks

Monitoring Risks https://www.rozen-bakher.com/monitoring-risks-1

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

CV

Two-State Solution

Population by Religion

  • Israel Population: 9,216,900 Million (World Bank, 2020) Religion in Israel - Wikipedia

    • Jewish Israeli Population: app. 74% - app. 6,800,000

    • Non-Jewish Israeli Population: app. 26% - app. 2,400,000

  • Palestine Population: 4,803,269 Million (West Bank and Gaza – World Bank, 2020)

Political Share by Religion

  • Israeli Parliament (Knesset) has 120 Seats Knesset - Wikipedia

    • Jewish Parties - 89/120 Seats reflects a potential of 74%

    • Arab Parties - 31/120 Seats reflects a potential of 26%. Joint List - Wikipedia; United Arab List - Wikipedia

      Based on the last results in 2022, 9 seats (approximately 690,000 Arab votes) moved from Arab parties to Jewish parties, which may raise a concern about the ‘clean election’ because all Arab parties got in 2021 only 10 seats/120 seats compared to 19 seats/120 seates in 2022.

      Has the repeated inability to establish a Jewish coalition without Arab parties over the 3 elections in 2019-2021 led to a distortion of the clean and democratic election in Israel in 2022 in terms of manipulation with the results of the Arab population?

Under Two-State Solution, it’s very difficult to establish a Jewish coalition without Arab parties unless the Arab-Israeli population decreases by a voluntary transfer to the State of Palestine, which is opposite to a one-state solution. Nevertheless, trying to preserve the Jewish coalition without Arab parties may doom the democracy in Israel due to manipulation with the Arab results that may already occur in the election in 2022.

Cyber-elections are one of the most dangerous risks for democracies in the 21st century because all the elections are based on collecting the results via computers and software systems, which makes the elections vulnerable to manipulation via cyber-elections.

 

One-State Solution

Population by Religion

  • Jewish Population – app. 6,800,000 Million - 48%

  • Non-Jewish Population – app. 7,200,000 Million - 52%

  • Total Population – app. 14,000,000 Million

Political Share

  • Israeli Parliament (Knesset) has 120 Seats

    • Jewish Parties – 58/120 Seats reflects a potential of 48%

    • Arab Parties – 62/120 Seats reflects a potential of 52%

Under a One-State Solution, there is no option to establish a Jewish coalition without Arab parties unless it’s not really a One-State but an Apartheid State that runs under a mechanism of different rights for the two groups, the Jewish population and the Palestinian population. Nevertheless, trying to preserve the Jewish majority may also lead to intense Ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians via demolitions and deportations, along with the implementation of an Apartheid State to push-out, either voluntarily or involuntarily, the Palestinians from the ‘Israeli Jewish One-State’.

What are the risks of the ‘Israeli Apartheid State’ under the ‘One-State Solution’?

  • Two-State Solution could lead to the ending of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, which may lead to the opportunity to create security stability and economic prosperity via International Trade and FDI in the Middle East, including the Gulf region. Currently, the international trade with Israel and the FDI in Israel by Arab states, or vice versa, the FDI of Israel in Arab States, are limited due to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. It’s in the style of a ‘Cold-Peace’ or ‘Cold Diplomatic Relations’ because Arab firms are de-facto limiting their business activities with Israel. Even, for example, Saudi Arabia has not yet established a diplomatic relation with Israel, likely due to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict because the ‘simple Arab people’ oppose relations with Israel.

  • One-State Solution could escalate the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict because, over time, the share of the Palestinian population increases while the share of the Jewish population decreases, resulting in an inability to preserve the Jewish characteristics of the Jewish State unless it is implemented via Apartheid State, Ethnic cleansing and manipulated elections to somehow preserve the Jewish majority. Thus, the expectation is that under the One-State Solution, the Palestinians will continue with their goal to achieve an independent state, so the expectation is that the resistance movement of the Palestinians against the Israeli occupation will continue, including military conflicts and wars. Looking at British colonies around the world may give a good indication of the importance of achieving an independent state by ethnic groups that have territory. All British colonies resisted against the continuation of British control until the independence was achieved. Only very small populations of colonies like Gibraltar that have no advantages in running an independent country have agreed to continue with the status of colony. However, the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza includes 5 million people, with the expectation for a fast increase due to the high fertility rate, so it is likely that the Palestinians will continue with their goal to end the Israeli occupation and to become an independent state. Nevertheless, the conflict of the One-State Solution could expand beyond Israel to the Middle-East and Gulf Regions, and it even could trigger a regional conflict or a global conflict, or worse, WWIII, especially if a war occurs between Israel and Iran that may include the involvement of superpowers.

    The main risk is what will happen if Israel implements an ‘Apartheid State’ under the ‘One-State Solution.

    Still, the question is if Israel already runs de-facto an ‘Apartheid State’ under the ‘One-State Solution?

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher

Dr. Ziva Rozen-Bakher - A Researcher in International Relations with a Focus on Security, Political and Economic Risks for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Trade

https://www.rozen-bakher.com/
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